Tag: statistics

  • Ted Talks Quotes: Statistics and Probability

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    Ted Talks - Statistics and Probability

    I think if our students, if our high school students — if all American citizens — knew about probability and statistics, we wouldn’t be in the economic mess that we’re in today. — Arthur Benjamin

    The number-one cause of death in children under five? Water-borne diseases? Diarrhea? Malnutrition? No: It’s breathing the smoke from indoor cooking fires — acute respiratory infections. Over two million deaths every year. — Amy Smith

    There’s zero correlation between being the best talker and having the best ideas. — Susan Cain

    If we study what is merely average, we will remain merely average. — Shawn Achor

    From the perspective of climate change, the average urban dweller in the U.S. has about 1/3 the carbon footprint of the average suburban dweller. — Ellen Dunham-Jones

    The U.N. now says that one out of three women on the planet will be raped or beaten in their lifetime. We’re talking about the desecration of the primary resource of the planet. — Eve Ensler

    Humans in the developed world spend more than 90% of their lives indoors, where they breathe in and come into contact with trillions of life forms invisible to the naked eye: microorganisms. — Jessica Green

    Boys are 30% more likely than girls to drop out of school. In Canada, five boys drop out for every three girls. Girls outperform boys now at every level, from elementary school to graduate school. — Philip Zimbardo

    The typical American reports making about 70 choices in a typical day. — Sheena Iyengar


    Charity Showcase

    In celebration of American Heart Month (February) . . . The American Heart Association works to teach people how to identify heart attacks and strokes as well as funds research and treatment for heart disease. Donate via http://www.americanheart.org, or by calling 800-242-8721.

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  • How Statistics Can Be Used to Deceive and Mislead

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    Obama Increases Spending 16% Over 4 Years

    In May, 2012, Rex Nutting of MarketWatch used statistics from the White House Office of Management and Budget to show that President Obama wasn’t a big spender. But to do it, he had to switch from the projected spending for fiscal years 2012 and 2013 by the OMB to the lower figures of the Congressional Budget Office. Ah, a great deceptive use of numbers: The bait and switch.

    So Obama’s first fiscal year of spending was only $3.46 trillion (not counting all the spending he asked for, budgeted, and spent in his first real year in office in 2009, including a stimulus bill, cash for clunkers, and more).

    As Rex noted, the president only begins to shape the budget in his second year. It takes time to develop a budget and steer it through Congress — especially in these days of congressional gridlock. Of course, in reality, that wasn’t true, because Obama was responsible for a ton of spending in fiscal year 2009 (which Nutting conveniently assigns completely to Bush).

    So Bush was responsible, according to Nutting, for all $3.52 trillion in spending in fiscal year 2009. That number compared to Obama’s fiscal year 2010 spending of $3.46 trillion actually results in Obama spending less than Bush, and over a 4-year period only increasing spending to $3.58 trillion (which is the number Nutting comes up with in fiscal 2013 by using CBO numbers rather than the OMB numbers of $3.80 trillion for fiscal year 2013).

    Now, let’s look at Bush’s last four years of spending compared to Obama’s projected spending (using Nutting’s distorted projections):

    In the last four fiscal years of Bush’s term (we’ll use Nutting’s fiscal years of 2006 to 2009), Bush spent $11.89 trillion dollars.

    During Obama’s first term (using Nutting’s altered fiscal years of 2010 to 2013), Obama will spend $13.77 trillion dollars. That’s a projected 16% rise in spending by Obama compared to Bush’s last four years.

    Uninformed Democrats have been passing around a deceptive graphic showing that Obama has only increased spending by 1.4 percent, or as Nutting put it: Federal spending is rising at the slowest pace since Dwight Eisenhower brought the Korean War to an end in the 1950s.

    But now you know the truth. Even using Nutting’s distortions, spending will rise by 16% during Obama’s four years (as compared to Bush’s last four years). Smart, informed Americans have known that spending has increased. An added $6 trillion to the deficit sort of leaked the truth to people who pay attention.

    ==

    Addendum 1: Note that Nutting completely ignored that there hasn’t been a budget passed in any of the last 3+ years (because the Democratic Senate and Obama have not pushed for a real budget), so the whole idea that it takes time to develop a budget is really another deliberately deceptive statement.

    Addendum 2: You might have noticed that the charting function in Microsoft Word that I used distorted the graphic to make the difference between Bush and Obama look bigger than it really is. Word defaulted to starting the graph at 10.5 trillion, so the differences between the two is deceptively larger.

    Addendum 3: Note that Bush’s spending increase in 2001 happened 8.3 months into his first term, immediately after the 9/11 terrorist act. That act led to the U.S. gearing up to fight 2 wars in Asia. That’s why the incredible increase in spending for his first four fiscal years.

    Addendum 4: The decision to assign the first 8.3 months of spending in a new president’s term to the previous president was not an arbitrary decision made by Nutting. He knew that this would deliberately distort the spending records of Democratic presidents who are noted for trying to outdo each other with new programs and spending in the first 100 days of their new administrations. Nutting actually assigns this new Democratic spending from the first 250 days (not just the first 100 days) to the previous Republican president, thus conveniently minimizing the real spending records of the new Democratic presidents.


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